80k After Hours   /     Highlights: #200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

Subtitle
Duration
1374
Publishing date
2024-09-18 14:12
Link
https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ezra-karger-forecasting-existential-risks/
Contributors
  The 80000 Hours team
author  
Enclosures
https://media.transistor.fm/27dc4b77/8d5b66fe.mp3
audio/mpeg

Shownotes

This is a selection of highlights from episode #200 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast. These aren't necessarily the most important, or even most entertaining parts of the interview — and if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode:

Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org.

Highlights:

  • Luisa’s intro (00:00:00)
  • Why we need forecasts about existential risks (00:00:26)
  • Headline estimates of existential and catastrophic risks (00:02:43)
  • What explains disagreements about AI risks? (00:06:18)
  • Learning more doesn't resolve disagreements about AI risks (00:08:59)
  • A lot of disagreement about AI risks is about when AI will pose risks (00:11:31)
  • Cruxes about AI risks (00:15:17)
  • Is forecasting actually useful in the real world? (00:18:24)

Highlights put together by Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong